I have been keeping an eye on many of the events which are transpiring in Afghanistan now and I believe there is a glimmer of hope in the plan that NATO, the US, and the Afghan Government have put together. It is yet too early to get too happy but it seems that things have gotten off to a good start and with a lot more hard work and sharp diplomacy we just might put some points in the win column.
The beauty of the peace plan is that it gives everyone a chance to bow out of the war gracefully. The US must realize by now that there is no such animal as wiping out worldwide terrorism. The Taliban has to realize the futility of their guerrilla warfare tactics against the might of the NATO alliance. So what we have is a stalemate. I believe that the troop surge which is presently being conducted is designed to show the Taliban the futility of their actions in continuing to fight the war more so than it is designed to eliminate their numbers. Hopefully it will cause them to begin to want peace.
This peace plan is a very intelligent plan but there is no room for error. It should be viewed as an active and open document. What I mean by this is that there will probably have to be small changes and concessions as we go along, but the foundation is solid.
The plan offers incentives to Taliban fighters and will also give them a role in the new government of Afghanistan. This also requires some concessions on the part of the individual Taliban members also. They must pledge allegiance to the new government when they lay down their arms. The biggest problem in this part of the plan is the problem of what to do about the leadership of the Taliban. There are some provisions given to allow them to leave the country etc., but the US is not too keen on offering them anything more.
The biggest source of optimism for me is the recent peace conference (jirga), which President Karzai just recently conducted. The conference was a success although the Taliban used suicide bombers to attempt to disrupt it. Even though high level Taliban officials could not be present there were many Taliban supporters there who surely took news of what was discussed back to Taliban leaders. The response from the supporters was very good which is definitely good news. President Karzai only needs to build on the initial success of the conference.
There are several major issues which could become stopping points if he cant find a way around them but I am sure that he will. One is getting an opportunity to meet privately with Taliban leaders. There are several reasons why they couldnt attend. First of all they have bounties on their heads. They also refuse to negotiate as long as US forces remain in the country. We all know that they will not get this concession from the US so now comes the task of finding some neutral territory to work from.
Delegates raised some of their concerns at the conference which are legitimate. From what I saw they were not unreasonable. One of the concerns was that NATO troops will frequently raid the homes of innocent citizens when they are searching for terrorists. There may be a way for NATO to take care of this concern to show good will but the question is how far do you bend? It may or may not be in NATOs interest to do so. Another concern that the delegates voiced is the killing of innocent civilians during military drone attacks. This is certainly a valid concern and Im sure that the US and NATO have many safeguards in place already. They may have to take a look at exactly what else can be done to prevent this. We will certainly keep our eyes focused on new developments and will inform you as soon as new developments present themselves. Military Ring Express