One thing which seems to be certain is that al-Qaeda is losing power and influence in the world and in the Muslim community. There are many different reasons for this but there are several which stand out as prevalent.

Al-Qaeda has almost ceased to be a credible terror organization. There was a time that thee name struck fear in the hearts of Americans and people who were not Muslim because the next attack could not be predicted and there was a feeling of helplessness. The US and its allies have done a wonderful job of keeping the terror organization in check in that they have not been able to mount a major operation since the attack on the twin towers in New York. In addition we have been getting news reports of foiled terror attacks which serve to cause the organization to appear inept.

The US Drone campaign in Afghanistan and Pakistan has served to lop off many of the heads of the organization at many different times. This campaign has been so effective that al-Qaeda leaders are afraid to come out of hiding for fear of being killed. The fact that this campaign has killed so many of their leaders to be killed has caused the organization to be disorganized and their operations to be fragmented. A leaderless organization is like a ship in the sea with no one to steer it. It is at the mercy of the wind and waves. Even when a new leader is appointed to take the place of a fallen one there is a period of time that the organizations effectiveness will fall until the new leader can take control.

The biggest nail in the coffin of al-Qaeda thus far has been the US Commando attack in which Osama bin Laden was killed. This effectively hit the organization in the heart because of its actual effects of destroying their leader and the negative propaganda and image that it paints for the operations of al-Qaeda and its future. This victory was as much symbolic as well as tactical. This was the worst single setback that the organization could ever incur. Al-Qaeda has not been able to mount a counterattack yet in retaliation for this event. This also lessens the credibility of the organization in the eyes of the world.

Al-Qaeda has committed many atrocities against fellow Muslims. This has weakened the influence of the organization and their way of doing business throughout the world. Not all Muslims believe in the precepts of the jihad that al-Qaeda has declared against the west, and it certainly doesnt help their cause when they harass and torture innocent men, women and children. When you need the support of the local community of people you have to give them a reason to want to support you. Each negative incident decreases whatever trust that they may have had in the organization.

One indicator of al-Qaedas demise of influence is the fact that they seem to be having problems recruiting suicide bombers. Suicide bombers seemed to be plentiful at the beginning of the conflict but I have read reports of how they have been abducting young children and forcing them to act as suicide bombers recently. I believe that the biggest reason for this is that there are not many people left who really believe in the cause.
I do believe that al-Qaeda is in its twilight years as a viable terror organization. If another organization rises up to replace it I dont think that they will embrace the same idealogy because of the problems that it has caused al-Qaeda.

The CIA is continuing to comb through the intelligence gathered when Osama bin Laden was taken out and I believe that they will find much more intelligence that can be used to further cripple the organization

Al-Qaeda has proven to be resilient in the face of withering pressure from the west but I believe that it will slowly fade into the pages of eternity. I believe that al-Qaeda will cease to exist within the next ten to fifteen years. Military Ring Express