Signs To Economic Recovery Are Taking Place
Most economists can agree on one thing: the probability of falling back into a recession is very low. Savvy investors can use this time to their advantage; it has become an extraordinary opportunity to buy stocks and real estate, especially locally. Though it is a more difficult time for everybody, investors have every reason to work with what they have. That's the true way to rebuild an economy.
Vangaurd is one of the world's largest investment management companies.
Joe Davis, Vanguards chief economist, notes that there are preconditions for a self-sustaining recovery, and currently we have achieved four:
1.Inventory Replenishment: We have seen that our GDP in 2009's 4th quarter and 2010's 1st quarter have been well above 4%, which is a great sign for recovery.
2.Massive and accommodative monetary policies
3.Stabilization and improvement of financial conditions
4.Improvement in sentiment or "animal spirits" with the business and consumer.
5.Job Growth: Often an indicator of financial recovery, job growth has not proved to be self-sustainable. However, Vanguard anticipates that over the next few months we will see a modest increase.
As for the strength of the recovery, Davis sees the trend to be "anemic and u-shaped," meaning it's going to take a long time to get back to where we were before the recession, which began in 2007. He points out that most of us see jobs as a symbol for economic growth over GDP, and in those terms, we are back to where we were in 1999. Davis predicts that we may fully recover by late 2013 as consumers repair balance sheets and improve savings rate.
Another set of economists provide five of their own signs that show recovery is holding place:
(1)More jobs, higher unemployment: As Spring rolls around, many corporations will begin to add jobs, however the process of job growth will remain slow. Though this may seem counterintuitive, many economists anticipate the unemployment rate, which only includes those actively seeking a job, will rise as more of the jobless regain hope.
(2)Value of homes to rise: As prices and low mortgage rates decline, housing has become relatively affordable compared to the last 40 years. As these prices begin to stabilize, lenders will exude more confidence and prices can be expected to rise 3.5% by next year.
(3)Consumer Confidence: Consumers need to feel more financially secure before they go on to their former spending habits. However, obtaining credit has become an even stingier process than ever before.
(4)Expansion on small and medium sized businesses: Most of the jobs in the US are provided by small business owners, yet these businesses don't have much of the ability to expand. William Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NGIB), expects less than a 3% growth for small businesses. This is especially true for the construction industry, but there is a small light at the end of the tunnel with the numbers of homes being built being likely to grow after three subpar years.
(5)Washington is helping: Bills have been passed to provide jobs, add unemployment benefits, and a health insurance subsidy. However, some of these bills are slow to pass, and many believe that if it doesn't continue, the economy could slip once again
Nigel Gault, chief US economist with HIS Global Insight has similar anticipations, predicting a 3% gain in GDP as well as a net gain of 1 million jobs. However, Gault estimates unemployment rate to remain relatively stagnant at 10%.
Most financial experts agree that we are in a path to recovery. Just how strong a recovery has varied greatly across multiple countries and industries. In 2009, markets were extremely volatile, yet a year later we see a trend of the global economy smoothing itself out. Some of the sharpest spikes in recovery come from the most distressed markets-manufacturing and housing-since these industries came from such low levels.
Vangaurd is one of the world's largest investment management companies.
Joe Davis, Vanguards chief economist, notes that there are preconditions for a self-sustaining recovery, and currently we have achieved four:
1.Inventory Replenishment: We have seen that our GDP in 2009's 4th quarter and 2010's 1st quarter have been well above 4%, which is a great sign for recovery.
2.Massive and accommodative monetary policies
3.Stabilization and improvement of financial conditions
4.Improvement in sentiment or "animal spirits" with the business and consumer.
5.Job Growth: Often an indicator of financial recovery, job growth has not proved to be self-sustainable. However, Vanguard anticipates that over the next few months we will see a modest increase.
As for the strength of the recovery, Davis sees the trend to be "anemic and u-shaped," meaning it's going to take a long time to get back to where we were before the recession, which began in 2007. He points out that most of us see jobs as a symbol for economic growth over GDP, and in those terms, we are back to where we were in 1999. Davis predicts that we may fully recover by late 2013 as consumers repair balance sheets and improve savings rate.
Another set of economists provide five of their own signs that show recovery is holding place:
(1)More jobs, higher unemployment: As Spring rolls around, many corporations will begin to add jobs, however the process of job growth will remain slow. Though this may seem counterintuitive, many economists anticipate the unemployment rate, which only includes those actively seeking a job, will rise as more of the jobless regain hope.
(2)Value of homes to rise: As prices and low mortgage rates decline, housing has become relatively affordable compared to the last 40 years. As these prices begin to stabilize, lenders will exude more confidence and prices can be expected to rise 3.5% by next year.
(3)Consumer Confidence: Consumers need to feel more financially secure before they go on to their former spending habits. However, obtaining credit has become an even stingier process than ever before.
(4)Expansion on small and medium sized businesses: Most of the jobs in the US are provided by small business owners, yet these businesses don't have much of the ability to expand. William Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NGIB), expects less than a 3% growth for small businesses. This is especially true for the construction industry, but there is a small light at the end of the tunnel with the numbers of homes being built being likely to grow after three subpar years.
(5)Washington is helping: Bills have been passed to provide jobs, add unemployment benefits, and a health insurance subsidy. However, some of these bills are slow to pass, and many believe that if it doesn't continue, the economy could slip once again
Nigel Gault, chief US economist with HIS Global Insight has similar anticipations, predicting a 3% gain in GDP as well as a net gain of 1 million jobs. However, Gault estimates unemployment rate to remain relatively stagnant at 10%.
Most financial experts agree that we are in a path to recovery. Just how strong a recovery has varied greatly across multiple countries and industries. In 2009, markets were extremely volatile, yet a year later we see a trend of the global economy smoothing itself out. Some of the sharpest spikes in recovery come from the most distressed markets-manufacturing and housing-since these industries came from such low levels.
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